Best ace path
Cristopher Sánchez
PHI vs HOU
recent form is the strongest positive signal in this forecast. The projection sees a real path to an ace-level start, with limited downside.
43% Ace chance4% Bust risk
Daily starter board
What to watch on the mound today.
A pregame read of every listed starter: expected outing, ceiling, risk, and the paths worth following.
September 9, 202629 starters
Proj. MalliExpected outing grade. It is an average, not a promise.
Ace %Chance of a 59+ MalliScore outing.
Bust %Chance of finishing below 30.
How to use this board
Start with the green signals. Let the orange signal change your decision.
Target25%+ Ace
One of the best ceiling paths on today's slate.
Safer start12% or less Bust
Less downside than a typical listed starter.
Warning25%+ Bust
Enough downside that it should affect the choice.
Based on 611 scored E7 starts: 25%+ Ace calls became ace outings 44% of the time; the slate baseline was 16%.
Three paths
The starts that give this slate a story.
These are pregame probabilities. The game still gets the final word.
56.0
Worth watching
Yoshinobu Yamamoto
LAD vs CIN
Yoshinobu Yamamoto's case is not just reputation. The current slate gives him a recent form path that keeps his ceiling in play.
34% Ace chance5% Bust risk
Risky spot
Braydon Fisher
TOR vs ATH
Braydon Fisher carries the highest downside on the board. The projection still allows a good outing, but the fragile path is more present here.
3% Ace chance44% Bust risk
Full slate
Every listed starter.
Sorted by Ace chance. Projected line uses the expected outcome.
| Pitcher | Matchup | Proj. Malli | Ace % | Bust % | IP | K | BB | ER | WHIP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cristopher SánchezCitizens Bank Park | PHI vs HOU | 56.0 | 43% | 4% | 6.0 | 6.8 | 1.4 | 2.0 | 1.08 |
| Yoshinobu YamamotoUNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium | LAD vs CIN | 52.4 | 34% | 5% | 6.0 | 6.9 | 1.6 | 2.2 | 1.05 |
| Jake BennettFenway Park | BOS vs LAA | 50.1 | 26% | 9% | 5.2 | 5.4 | 1.4 | 2.3 | 1.15 |
| Logan HendersonAmerican Family Field | MIL vs CHC | 48.4 | 21% | 12% | 5.2 | 5.6 | 1.6 | 2.3 | 1.17 |
| Hunter BrownCitizens Bank Park | HOU vs PHI | 47.1 | 20% | 12% | 5.2 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 2.3 | 1.24 |
| Shane BazOriole Park at Camden Yards | BAL vs CLE | 46.3 | 17% | 12% | 5.2 | 4.8 | 1.7 | 2.4 | 1.25 |
| Kevin GausmanAmerican Family Field | CHC vs MIL | 45.5 | 17% | 14% | 5.2 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 2.6 | 1.27 |
| Zebby MatthewsComerica Park | MIN vs DET | 44.8 | 17% | 15% | 5.2 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 2.6 | 1.25 |
| Will WarrenYankee Stadium | NYY vs COL | 42.8 | 16% | 16% | 5.1 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 2.6 | 1.28 |
| Griffin JaxTruist Park | TB vs ATL | 42.8 | 14% | 14% | 5.0 | 5.2 | 1.6 | 2.2 | 1.21 |
| Kade AndersonT-Mobile Park | SEA vs TEX | 43.2 | 14% | 17% | 5.0 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 2.5 | 1.33 |
| Walker BuehlerPetco Park | SD vs WSH | 42.4 | 13% | 18% | 5.0 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 2.5 | 1.31 |
| Blade TidwellOracle Park | SF vs STL | 44.0 | 12% | 18% | 5.1 | 4.6 | 1.9 | 2.4 | 1.31 |
| Foster GriffinOriole Park at Camden Yards | CLE vs BAL | 43.6 | 11% | 21% | 5.1 | 4.7 | 1.7 | 2.8 | 1.34 |
| Keider MonteroComerica Park | DET vs MIN | 41.0 | 11% | 22% | 5.1 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 2.6 | 1.29 |
| Jackson KentPetco Park | WSH vs SD | 43.0 | 10% | 21% | 5.1 | 4.5 | 1.9 | 2.6 | 1.34 |
| Tomoyuki SuganoYankee Stadium | COL vs NYY | 40.1 | 9% | 25% | 5.0 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 2.8 | 1.35 |
| Davis MartinRate Field | CWS vs PIT | 40.3 | 8% | 23% | 5.0 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 2.7 | 1.35 |
| Andre PallanteOracle Park | STL vs SF | 39.4 | 8% | 25% | 5.1 | 4.4 | 1.9 | 2.7 | 1.37 |
| Rhett LowderUNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium | CIN vs LAD | 39.8 | 8% | 24% | 5.1 | 4.4 | 1.9 | 2.7 | 1.35 |
| Zac GallenKauffman Stadium | AZ vs KC | 40.2 | 8% | 26% | 5.1 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 3.1 | 1.37 |
| Ryan JohnsonFenway Park | LAA vs BOS | 39.1 | 7% | 27% | 5.0 | 4.3 | 1.9 | 2.6 | 1.40 |
| Robert StockloanDepot park | NYM vs MIA | 40.8 | 7% | 22% | 4.0 | 4.5 | 1.9 | 2.5 | 1.36 |
| Cody BradfordT-Mobile Park | TEX vs SEA | 39.4 | 7% | 27% | 5.0 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 3.0 | 1.43 |
| Janson JunkloanDepot park | MIA vs NYM | 39.0 | 7% | 28% | 5.0 | 4.1 | 1.7 | 2.6 | 1.34 |
| Brady BassoSutter Health Park | ATH vs TOR | 32.8 | 6% | 31% | 3.1 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 2.3 | 1.49 |
| Daniel Lynch IVKauffman Stadium | KC vs AZ | 35.3 | 6% | 31% | 4.2 | 3.8 | 1.8 | 2.5 | 1.44 |
| Lake BacharRate Field | PIT vs CWS | 32.9 | 4% | 37% | 3.0 | 3.6 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.43 |
| Braydon FisherSutter Health Park | TOR vs ATH | 31.4 | 3% | 44% | 3.2 | 3.6 | 1.6 | 2.3 | 1.48 |
Reading the projection
A score is the middle. The probabilities show the range.
Use the projected MalliScore as the expected shape of the start. Ace chance shows the ceiling still in play; Bust chance shows the downside that comes with it.
How MalliScore works