Written October 2 for the October 3, 2026 Division Series. Regular-season numbers run through September 27.
Picking against San Diego right now makes me uncomfortable. So does trusting the Dodgers to get past an Atlanta team that beat them five times in six meetings. I'm picking Milwaukee and Los Angeles anyway, but for different reasons.
The Yankees' pitching gives me confidence. Cleveland's does too, along with that familiar feeling that the Guardians will find a way to be playing in October. These are my four picks, with the numbers that support them and the opponents that could make me regret them.
Yankees vs. Rays
The Rays won five more games and took the season series 7-6. The Yankees still outscored opponents by 52 more runs, with MLB's lowest team ERA at 3.23 and 223 home runs, second-most in the majors.
Tampa is a tough lineup to put away. The Rays struck out in just 18.8% of their plate appearances, the lowest rate in MLB and well below the league's 22.1%. I still trust New York's pitching to handle that challenge, though it will have to finish innings with runners threatening rather than count on strikeouts every time.
The Yankees' offense has been producing without Aaron Judge. They scored 18 runs in the Wild Card sweep while Judge was out with a calf injury. Two games won't prove that will last, and his Division Series availability still needs watching, but the lineup has already given them a way to win without waiting for him.
Tampa's pitchers allowed MLB's lowest walk rate, so New York may have to supply that damage with fewer free runners. I like the Yankees' chances anyway.
My pick: Yankees. I trust their pitching against Tampa's contact-heavy lineup, and the offense has given me more confidence that it can win without relying on Judge to carry it.
White Sox vs. Guardians
Chicago has a fair argument here: a +56 run differential against Cleveland's +11, a 7-6 edge in their season series, and 211 home runs, fifth-most in MLB. Sweeping Houston only adds to the reasons to take the White Sox seriously.
Cleveland has the stronger strikeout-and-walk profile: fourth in strikeout rate minus walk rate, compared with Chicago's 21st. That measures how often a staff gets strikeouts while limiting free passes. Chicago's 4.12 ERA was close to the league's 4.17, so its pitching results were still roughly average overall.
The Guardians are back for their third consecutive postseason appearance. Chicago's power can turn a close game on one swing, so keeping runners off base ahead of those swings will matter for Cleveland.
My pick: Guardians. Chicago's pitching is the part I trust least in this matchup. Cleveland's stronger staff and recent October experience give me more confidence in how it will handle a close series.
Padres vs. Brewers
This is the pick I wrestled with most. San Diego went 20-10 in its final 30 regular-season games, swept the Cubs, and had already beaten Milwaukee 4-2 in the season series, including an August sweep.
The Padres can also hand late leads to Adrian Morejon and Mason Miller. I wouldn't want Milwaukee spending the whole series trying to come back against that bullpen.
Still, the Brewers seem to know exactly how they want to play. Their version of small ball starts with getting on base: a .341 OBP, best in MLB. They finished second in runs despite hitting 154 homers, with only one team hitting fewer. That's the part I trust: they found a productive way to score without needing the long ball every night.
Then there's Miz and Logan Henderson. Jacob Misiorowski led MLB with a 1.80 ERA; Henderson posted a 2.47 ERA in 98.1 innings. Henderson's season was shorter than a qualifying starter's, but that's still a pair I want taking the ball. Their performance will go a long way toward deciding whether Milwaukee can play from ahead.
My pick: Brewers. I believe in the way they've built their offense, and Miz and Henderson give them a chance to control these games early. San Diego's form and bullpen make this a difficult call.
Braves vs. Dodgers
Atlanta earned this matchup by beating Philadelphia 6-2 in Thursday's deciding Wild Card game. The Braves used six pitchers, including Chris Sale for the final four outs. That doesn't rule anyone out for Saturday, but their Division Series pitching plan matters after a three-game series that went the distance.
Atlanta went 5-1 against Los Angeles during the regular season, including a three-game sweep in late August. I can't brush that aside. The Braves' 94 wins and fifth-ranked team ERA make them capable of taking this series.
I'm less convinced by the Dodgers' lineup than their reputation might suggest. Their .762 OPS ranked second in MLB, so the season numbers give it plenty of credit. I still don't feel comfortable assuming that offense will separate them from Atlanta's pitching over five games.
The pitching depth is what keeps me on Los Angeles. Yamamoto, Skubal, Snell and Glasnow are rotation options, and this is the Dodgers' 14th straight postseason. I put some weight on that experience and on having several pitchers to turn to if a start goes wrong. How they use those arms matters more to my pick than the names in the batting order.
My pick: Dodgers, narrowly. Their pitching depth and October experience tip it for me. I expect Atlanta to make the lineup work for its runs, which is why I'm less comfortable with this pick than the Dodgers' reputation might suggest.
Sources: Mallitalytics, MLB Stats API, MLB.com and Associated Press.